The Tomato Paste Market Is Shifting. Lock In Your Supply Now
The Market Window Is Open — But Closing Fast
The 2026 California tomato crop is intentionally shrinking. To rebalance supply from last year’s surplus, processors have cut contracted acreage to a 30-year low (down 11% to 9.9M tons).
What this means for you: Right now, tomato paste pricing is soft and highly favorable. But with California snowpack at just ~18% of average, summer irrigation limits could quickly tighten supply. The time to secure your volume is now, while conditions remain in your favor.
Consumer Demand Stays Strong
While supply is pulling back, demand is not. Circana projects a 2% to 4% growth in retail food sales this year as consumers continue to eat at home. This means sustained demand for your sauces, soups, and prepared meals.
At the same time, the USDA expects overall food-at-home prices to rise 3.2% in 2026. Because segments like diced and whole peeled tomatoes are already tighter than bulk paste, securing your supply at today’s prices is the best hedge against late-year margin pressure.
What’s Driving Demand in 2026
Key Indicators Food Manufacturers Need to Know.
4% Retail F&B Dollar Sales Growth
3% Food-at-Home Price Increase
+11.5% Vegetable Retail Prices YoY
Firm Increase in Diced & Whole Peeled Tomato Pricing
Your Strategic Partner in a Shifting Market
You need more than a supplier—you need market intelligence. At ICI Foods, our deep relationships across the supply chain—from California processors to major ketchup manufacturers—give us a unique view of where the market is heading. (For instance, ketchup pricing updates in late summer will further impact the market as sweetener and sugar costs are reviewed.)
Whether you need tomato paste, diced tomatoes, or whole peeled tomatoes, we have the portfolio and the insight to keep your production running smoothly.
Don’t wait for the market to tighten.
Sources:
- USDA NASS — 2026 CA Processing Tomato Report
- California Tomato Growers Association (CTGA) 2026 Market Report
- Circana — 2026 F&B Outlook
- USDA ERS — Food Price Outlook, May 2026